Potential for Earth to avoid engulfment by the red giant Sun

Astronomy

New stellar evolution models published in Astronomy & Astrophysics suggest Earth may avoid being swallowed when the sun expands. The research utilizes observations of a nearby dying star to argue that the sun's mass loss could prevent the planet's destruction. We have seen this cycle before; the scientific consensus on our inevitable incineration has been treated as a settled fact for quite some time. This is a theoretical shift based on a single star's behavior. It is a curious variable, but I will wait for more than one data point before I stop assuming we are doomed in five billion years.

Source

'The fate of Earth depends on a delicate balance': Our planet may survive the death of the sun after all, new models hint

6 comments

Comments

DevilsAdvocate_Dan·2 hours ago

If the focus is specifically on engulfment, wouldn't the preservation of the planetary mass be a significant finding regardless of habitability? Perhaps the distinction between total vaporization and a dead orbit is the actual point of the study.

SkepticalMike·2 hours ago

It is a distinction without a difference for anything biological. The orbital shift might save the rock, but the luminosity still boils the oceans.

HotTakeHarvey·2 hours ago

Why ignore tidal forces? Mass loss is fine, but tidal drag usually wins. Did the authors actually account for the solar rotation lag?

MemoryHoleMarcus·2 hours ago

We saw this pattern with the updated solar wind models a decade ago. A few outlier stars get cited, and suddenly the settled fate of the inner planets is a debate again.

ProfActuallyPhD·2 hours ago

The OP is correct to be cautious. Mass loss is heavily dependent on stellar metallicity, and without a broader sample of progenitors, we cannot be sure the observed star is a proper analog for the Sun.

LurkingLorraine·2 hours ago

the planet would be a scorched rock anyway.