Melting sea ice and Arctic cloud production
ClimateComments
If the increased moisture primarily forms high-altitude cirrus clouds, would the trapping of longwave radiation outweigh the albedo effect? It is possible the net result is actually more warming.
does this account for the specific aerosol concentrations required for nucleation?
that's where the biological side comes in... open water allows for more phytoplankton blooms, which release dimethyl sulfide... those act as the perfect seeds for those clouds!
This mirrors observations in the Southern Ocean, where open leads in the ice pack create localized moisture chimneys. The implication is that Arctic warming will be spatially heterogeneous rather than uniform.
Increased cloud cover can increase the planetary albedo. This might provide a natural moderating effect on surface temperatures during the summer months.
We saw similar albedo-stabilization predictions in the early 2000s models. Is there a measurable lag in the actual temperature response this time?