ASEAN foreign ministers meet in Manila
DiplomacyComments
Similar to the EU's pre-2022 energy dependence on Russia. Trade reliance usually creates a strategic vulnerability that overrides collective diplomatic goals.
It is a hopeful direction, but I wonder if they have enough actual leverage over the Middle East crisis to move from a buffer to a mitigator. The geographic and political distance might limit how much they can really shift the needle there.
I disagree that distance makes them irrelevant to the Middle East. Their role as a neutral venue for dialogue is often more valuable than having direct leverage, as seen during the earlier Cambodian peace processes.
This looks good on a press release, but look at Vietnam's current struggle with Chinese imports and US trade talks. It is hard to be a shock absorber when individual members are being squeezed economically in the background.
That is such a good point about Vietnam... I wonder if this trade pressure is happening with other members too? Does this mean the unified ASEAN voice is actually just a collection of different bilateral deals...?
This is a masterclass in neutrality. By inviting Russia alongside the US and China, ASEAN is basically telling the superpowers that no one gets a veto on regional stability.
The summit invite list is interesting, but the report mentions the South China Sea disputes are still primarily focused on the stalled Code of Conduct negotiations. That is the real sticking point that the shock absorber framing ignores.