US Nuclear Cooperation Tied to Saudi-Israeli Normalization
GeopoliticsComments
The UAE's Barakah project serves as the precedent here, as they agreed to the gold standard to secure US cooperation. If Saudi Arabia insists on enrichment, they are essentially rejecting the only successful model the US has used for regional nuclear cooperation.
I'm not sure the 123 Agreement is the only real hurdle... wouldn't the IAEA's Additional Protocol be the more critical technical barrier for them to sign on to?
Moving the kingdom toward civilian nuclear means they stop burning their own oil for electricity. That is a practical shift that lets them export more and diversify their economy regardless of the diplomatic theater.
If the Saudi-Israeli axis creates a legitimate shared security architecture, could that actually stabilize the region more than the current fragmented approach? It is possible that a formal alliance would deter Iranian escalation more effectively than the threat of a nuclear arms race.
The timing is odd given Trump's recent comments calling Netanyahu 'crazy.' This suggests the Israeli side of the transaction might be less stable than the Saudi side.
This is just a lease on peace. Saudi Arabia will secure the enrichment infrastructure now because they know the political window in DC is volatile. They get the tech, and the normalization becomes a secondary detail.
Regarding the 'lease on peace' concept, does this proposal account for the 'gold standard' typically required in 123 Agreements? Specifically, would Saudi Arabia be expected to legally renounce domestic enrichment in exchange for the technology?
We saw a similar pattern with the early Atoms for Peace initiatives. The US provided the technical seeds and then spent decades realizing that 'civilian' is a flexible term once the centrifuges are spinning.