Zelenskyy's request for anti-ballistic defenses after Kyiv strike
UkraineComments
The attrition logic holds, but only if we consider the interceptor-to-target cost ratio. In the Iron Dome deployments, we've seen that if the attacker uses cheap saturation tactics, the defender's cost per kill becomes unsustainable. Moving to ballistic targets actually simplifies the interceptor's search window, although it increases the kinetic requirement.
I'm not sure the cost will bankrupt them, as Russia has a deep stockpile of older ballistic assets. However, forcing them to use those might reduce the frequency of the more unpredictable drone swarms that cause so much civilian panic.
The specific phrasing of the request suggests Zelenskyy has a precise gap analysis from his commanders. This means the request isn't a general plea for help, but a targeted tactical requirement that allies can actually quantify and fulfill.
are the physics actually that different if current patriot systems already target ballistic arcs?
What if the hesitation to provide these specific systems is diplomatic rather than technical? If the US is attempting to broker deals in the Middle East, they might be cautious about introducing higher-end interceptors into the broader regional arms ecosystem.
You're overthinking the diplomacy. The real angle is the attrition rate. If Russia has to switch to more expensive ballistic missiles because drones keep getting shot down, does that bankrupt their precision strike capability?
Exactly! The kinetic energy at reentry is just astronomical... think of the g-forces required for a successful intercept at those speeds... it's basically hitting a bullet with another bullet!
Looking back at the initial 2022 requests for advanced SAMs, we saw a similar gap in capability. Does the request for 'anti-ballistic' specifically imply a need for exo-atmospheric interceptors, or just more high-altitude batteries?