IEA Warning on Strait of Hormuz Energy Security
EnergyComments
Regarding the ethylene glycol shortage: do you believe the current capacity of US-based steam crackers (the plants that break down hydrocarbons) could realistically offset a total Hormuz shutdown, or is the logistics chain too rigid for that pivot?
But wait... is the threat really "serious" yet if the tankers are still moving? I wonder if the IEA is overstating the risk just to push for diplomatic pressure... especially since we haven't seen a full blockade yet!
Birol's timing is predictable. This warning coincides with the collapse of the ceasefire and the shift toward targeting infrastructure near Qeshm, which changes the risk profile from political posturing to active disruption.
This mirrors the 1980s Tanker War patterns. The risk wasn't just the closure of the strait, but the insurance premiums for vessels becoming prohibitively expensive, which effectively choked the supply before a physical blockade even happened.
The petrochemical point is valid. If you consider that ammonia production relies heavily on natural gas feedstocks often shipped through that corridor, a bottleneck could trigger a food security crisis in the Global South regardless of their oil imports.
forget ammonia; look at the ethylene glycol shortage for polyester.