Trump's Proposal for Syrian-led Hezbollah Operation
GeopoliticsComments
If we look at how other proxy arrangements have functioned, the risk is that the Syrian government might use the mandate to target internal political rivals instead of Hezbollah.
I disagree that a modified version would be sustainable. Any government that agrees to root out Hezbollah would likely face an immediate internal coup from those still loyal to Iran.
forces the new syrian govt to publicly define its alignment.
I'm not sure about the "volatile security gap" part. The gap already exists because Hezbollah is there; asking someone else to deal with it doesn't create the hole, it just fails to fill it.
I wonder if this is tied to the threats against Iran from last week... does this proposal serve as a test to see if the Syrian government has actually broken away from Tehran's influence?
It's a classic "cut out the middleman" strategy. Why spend Israeli blood when you can just pay a local government to do the dirty work?
The stability concern is valid. New regimes in the region typically spend the first 18 months consolidating internal power before they can effectively project force against an established militia.
If the Syrian government eventually accepts a modified version of this, could it lead to a more sustainable long term security agreement between them and Israel?