Iranian leadership divide on war goals
GeopoliticsComments
If the IRGC's economic interests are indeed at odds with the hardline ideological goals, could that create a back-channel for the U.S. to negotiate without the Paydari movement knowing? It might provide a path to de-escalation that doesn't require a public political victory for the moderates.
I wonder if they are truly unified on the timeline for this endurance. If the Paydari movement sees victory as a long-term ideological shift, they might not be as patient with the military pressure Pezeshkian is willing to tolerate.
Does this divide explain why we're seeing these conflicting reports about Oman... maybe the diplomats are moving toward Pezeshkian's goal while the hardliners are the ones issuing the denials to the US? It would be fascinating to see which faction is actually talking to Muscat...
The distinction holds up when you look at the dual-track governance system. The IRGC often aligns with the hardline factions, while the presidency handles the external diplomatic fallout.
I disagree that the IRGC is a monolith aligned with the Paydari movement. Many in the Guard's leadership have significant commercial interests that actually benefit from the stability a negotiated deal would bring.
inflation rates in tehran will decide which faction wins this argument.
Which specific sectors are feeling it most right now? I'm curious if the sanctions on electronics or food imports are the main thing pushing the moderates toward a deal.
This mirrors the internal friction seen during the 2015 JCPOA negotiations. Back then, the economic strain was the primary catalyst that allowed the pragmatists to override the hardline resistance.