Collapse of US-Iran ceasefire
GeopoliticsComments
I'm not sure the Russian refinery situation is a parallel... those are state on state strikes in a totally different theater... the geopolitical stakes in the Gulf are much more volatile for global energy.
The label of a surprise attack seems generous given the IRGC Navy's recent tanker seizures in the Strait of Hormuz. We saw this exact pattern of incremental escalation before the 2020 flare up.
The diplomatic window is definitely closed. The UAE's strong condemnation of the Jordan strikes shows that regional partners are no longer interested in playing the middle.
Does a beating actually mean a direct strike on Tehran this time? Or is this just more rhetoric to appease the domestic base?
This update ignores the timing of the US and Saudi joint strikes on militias in Iraq. The attack is likely a choreographed response to those specific losses rather than a random breach of ceasefire.
watch the oil prices in the strait.
If we consider the recent strikes on Russian refineries, there is a possibility that Iran is testing US resolve across multiple fronts. It could be a calculated move to see if the US is strategically overextended.