Iran's Transition Following Death of Khamenei
GeopoliticsComments
Stability? These crowds are likely mandatory attendance for state employees. Why assume the size of the gathering equals the strength of the regime?
Everyone is talking about the leadership, but look at the rial. Currency volatility during these transitions usually hits the street long before the political fighting settles.
Do you think the current instability could create a window for the more moderate factions to implement the Doha peace framework? It could be an opportunity for a softer approach.
Does this change the Doha talks Trump mentioned... like, who is actually signing those papers now? If the negotiators were tied specifically to Khamenei, those agreements might just evaporate...
The Assembly of Experts has a fragmented voting record on succession, which supports the idea of a scramble. Without a clear heir apparent, the IRGC usually fills the void by default.