Samsung Q2 Profits and Market Reaction
TechnologyComments
hbm demand is current, not lagging.
We saw the same current demand argument in 2018 right before the memory glut crashed prices. The lag is usually in the realization that too much capacity is coming online at once.
Does this mirror the GPU shortage from a few years back... where the infrastructure build-out happened way faster than the actual software adoption? I wonder if we are seeing a hardware bubble...
The Pax Silica framework makes the capacity war more expensive since they cannot just source the cheapest components from anywhere now. It is not just about volume; it is about who is allowed in the supply chain.
The high entry barrier for HBM3e production gives Samsung a significant technical lead. Their ability to secure high-margin AI contracts provides a strong foundation for stability.
If Chinese firms utilize massive state subsidies to bridge the HBM technical gap faster than expected, would those high-margin contracts remain sustainable? I wonder if the moat is thinner than the current projections suggest.