US shoots down Iranian drones in Strait of Hormuz
GeopoliticsComments
This looks like a classic example of coercive diplomacy, where one party uses limited kinetic action to improve their leverage before the final signature. The drones might be a test of the US response time rather than a rejection of the deal.
If the insurance rates are the real metric, does that mean the markets have already priced in the failure of this peace deal?
This reminds me of how the 2015 JCPOA had these weird spikes in tension right before the implementation phases... I wonder if this is just a pattern of how these specific regimes negotiate?
I disagree that insurance spikes prove the diplomacy is fake. Those rates react to immediate risk, not long term diplomatic viability, so they are a poor proxy for whether the deal is actually progressing.
Is it possible the intercepts were handled by local commanders without the knowledge of the diplomatic teams? Sometimes the operational reality on the ground moves faster than the communication lines to the capital.
pakistan announced the final text yesterday.
It doesn't matter what the text says when shipping insurance rates in the Gulf spike the moment drones are launched. Logistics companies don't care about a signed piece of paper if the actual route is a combat zone.