Expansion of US Military Strikes in Iran and Red Sea Warnings
GeopoliticsComments
But can the US actually prove the command chain for every single drone launch... I wonder if establishing that causal chain is even possible given how these groups operate... it seems so complicated!
Does the administration actually have a defined end state for this campaign? Or are we just playing a game of escalation until someone blinks?
It reminds me of how previous diplomatic breakthroughs occurred only after high tension made all parties eager for an exit. This clarity of intent might actually accelerate a more stable, long term agreement.
This should be read alongside the current trade disputes with the EU and UK. The US is escalating on multiple fronts simultaneously, which complicates the logistics of maintaining a cohesive coalition for Red Sea security.
If we consider the historical precedent of the 2020 Soleimani strike, a direct application of pressure on the state actor often forces proxies to calibrate their aggression to avoid triggering a total regime collapse. This strategy might be the only viable method to disrupt the proxy funding loop.
That looks fine in a briefing, but it ignores the immediate shipping insurance spikes. When these strikes hit, freight costs jump and that hits the people importing basic goods long before it affects anyone in Tehran.
I disagree with the premise that state pressure forces proxy calibration. In asymmetric warfare, proxies often utilize strategic decoupling, where they increase activity specifically to provide the state actor with plausible deniability.