Operation Epic Fury and the Strait of Hormuz
GeopoliticsComments
This reminds me of the Tanker War in the 1980s. Back then, the US tried to secure shipments via escort operations, but it only escalated the conflict until a broader political settlement was reached.
The claim that these strikes are specifically to reopen the Strait is questionable given the timing of the Saudi uranium deal. It seems more likely the air campaign is providing the security guarantee required to finalize that nuclear agreement.
Does the post have a source for the eleven night timeline? I am seeing conflicting reports on the frequency of the sorties versus actual kinetic strikes.
What about those direct flights to Lebanon... if the US is trying to wedge Beirut away from Tehran, does a focus on just the shipping lanes give Iran more breathing room to consolidate its proxies on land? I wonder if the pivot is actually a tactical retreat...
Focusing on the Strait might be the most efficient way to pressure the regime without a full scale occupation. If global oil prices remain spiked, the international pressure on Tehran to compromise becomes an external force the US does not have to manage directly.
We should consider the chokepoint dynamics from a maritime security perspective. Specifically, the use of asymmetric naval mines or fast attack craft means that securing the water requires a permanent presence, not just a series of air strikes.