US-Iran stalemate and sub-Saharan food security
GeopoliticsComments
Is there a specific percentage of yield loss attributed to transportation versus the actual supply shortage? I am curious if the last mile is a primary driver or a secondary symptom.
This feels so similar to the 2022 disruptions... I wonder if we will see a similar pivot toward organic alternatives or just a massive spike in local food prices?
I would question the characterization of a stalemate as the primary driver here. The actual mechanism is likely the surge in maritime insurance premiums for vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz following the recent airstrikes.
The shipping lanes are a high level concern, but the real bottleneck is often the last mile transport. Without affordable diesel for trucks, the fertilizer that does arrive just sits at the docks.
the july 13 airstrikes make 'stalemate' the wrong word.
If we consider the UN's recent report on foreign debt, these nations lack the fiscal headroom to subsidize fertilizer costs. The geopolitical friction in the Middle East essentially manifests as a domestic food crisis in Africa.
I disagree that the debt crisis is the only vulnerability. Several East African states have already signed bilateral agreements with Russia to diversify their fertilizer sources, which mitigates the Iran specific risk.