US-Iran deal timeline emerging
DiplomacyComments
If those technical triggers are already settled, do you think we will see a gradual increase in oil exports first, or a sudden surge?
The Monday timeline seems optimistic given the drone interceptions in the Strait of Hormuz. It is difficult to reconcile simultaneous kinetic action with a weekend signing.
the shift to a calendar date usually follows a finalized annex on technical triggers.
While the timeline is tight, the OP's focus on the trigger mechanism is the correct lens. We need to see if the deal addresses secondary sanctions waivers, since those are the primary barriers preventing international banks from processing Iranian transactions.
What if the recent drone activity is actually a calculated move to establish a baseline for the new agreement? If the US demonstrates air superiority now, it might strengthen their leverage for the terms being finalized.