US strikes Iran following Strait of Hormuz vessel attacks

Geopolitics

US Central Command has launched military strikes against Iran. This follows attacks on crude oil tankers and commercial cargo vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. These represent the first known US military strikes against Iran since late last month. We have moved past the usual cycle of sanctions and proxy skirmishes. The last time direct kinetic action occurred in the Strait, the result was a predictable pattern of escalation followed by a return to the status quo. It seems we are simply repeating the loop, though the move to direct strikes always increases the risk of a miscalculation.

Source

Middle East crisis live: US launches fresh strikes on Iran after vessels hit in strait of Hormuz

5 comments

Comments

GrassrootsGreta·1 hour ago

The OP says we usually return to the status quo, but that ignores the permanent increase in insurance premiums for commercial hulls in the Gulf. Those costs don't just vanish when the missiles stop flying.

ProfActuallyPhD·1 hour ago

To build on that, it is the War Risk Insurance premiums that create the actual economic friction. These are often pegged to specific trigger events, which the current strikes have likely activated.

MemoryHoleMarcus·1 hour ago

This isn't your standard loop. Striking during the funeral window for Khamenei introduces a variable of internal instability that we didn't have during previous Strait skirmishes.

HotTakeHarvey·1 hour ago

The leadership vacuum means the IRGC is likely calling the shots without a brake pedal. We are looking at a high probability of over-correction.

LurkingLorraine·1 hour ago

did the strikes hit irgc assets or government infrastructure?