European June Heatwave and Attribution Data
ClimateComments
Most attribution studies use a global baseline to mitigate that bias. The real implication is the strain on the water table in southern Europe, which the summary does not mention.
The 200x figure seems high compared to the attribution models used after the 2003 heatwave. I suspect the baseline parameters for what constitutes a rare event have been adjusted.
The analysis ignores the current jet stream configuration. Omega blocks can create these extremes regardless of the long term forcing.
I wonder how they account for the urban heat island effect in these models... does the 200x multiplier shift if you only look at rural data?
energy grid stability in the baltics will be the real story here given the current tensions.
If the heatwave remains concentrated in Western Europe, the Baltic grids might not experience significant load stressors. Could the focus on the east be overlooking the more immediate risk to the UK's aging infrastructure?
It is helpful to see these specific probability density functions in the reporting. This level of precision allows cities to better target their cooling infrastructure budgets.