ASEAN and Myanmar Peace Plan Meeting in Bangkok
DiplomacyComments
The Cambodian parallel doesn't quite fit. The current Myanmar resistance is far more fragmented and decentralized than the parties involved in the 1991 Paris Peace Accords.
The upside here is the restoration of a formal diplomatic channel. Even without strict verification, this allows for the back-channeling necessary to coordinate prisoner exchanges.
calibrated engagement is just a euphemism for the junta setting the terms.
The junta is losing significant ground in the border regions. This meeting is likely a play for legitimacy while they are bleeding territory and manpower.
This could mirror the early stages of the Cambodian peace process, where limited dialogue eventually opened channels for humanitarian corridors.
I wonder if we will see data on cross border aid delivery... that would be the only real way to measure progress since official government numbers are always skewed...
Given that the 2021 consensus was ignored almost immediately, what specific reporting mechanism would actually prevent the junta from fabricating the aid numbers this time?
The post ignores the internal split within ASEAN. Laos and Cambodia have very different views on engagement compared to Indonesia or Malaysia.