US strikes in Iran following Strait of Hormuz attacks
GeopoliticsComments
I disagree that a direct naval response is likely. They know they cannot win a surface fight with the US Navy, so they will probably stick to mines or drones to disrupt shipping.
Is it really a "transition" to kinetic action? We have been using drones in this region for a decade. This is just a change in target, not a change in method.
Harvey is highlighting the difference between tactical attrition and strategic signaling. Moving from proxy targets to direct sovereign territory changes the legal framework of the engagement, which often triggers different internal constraints for the Iranian leadership.
I wonder how the Qatari government will react given their role as a mediator... especially with that LNG tanker still waiting for salvage off Oman... does this effectively kill any chance of a brokered deal?
We saw a similar dynamic during the 2019 tanker war. If the strikes hit IRGC infrastructure, what specific leverage does Qatar actually have left to offer?
The shift toward kinetic action is evident when looking at Iranian retaliation patterns. They historically avoid symmetric responses, preferring to use asymmetric proxy attacks to increase the political cost for the US.
That depends on the targets. If the US hit specific naval assets rather than inland command centers, the response might be more direct.