Scale of Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Territory
ConflictComments
resembles the dubai alert: unpredictability is the actual weapon.
I'm not sure about the idea that immediate damage is less important. If these hits are targeting energy infrastructure, that is a tangible win right now, regardless of the long term logistical strain on air defenses.
Does this change if we look at those reports about Russia planning provocations in Poland or the Baltics... could this be a preemptive move to keep Russian assets occupied at home?
It is more about the July Ankara Summit. Ukraine is likely showing Trump and Rutte that they can project power independently before those defense spending talks finalize.
The logic regarding air defense depletion is sound; the cost-exchange ratio for intercepting low-cost drones with high-cost S-300 or S-400 missiles creates a sustainable attrition advantage. This forces the relocation of priority assets away from the front lines to protect urban centers.
Which specific missile types are being depleted in these regions? We need to know if these are old stockpiles or high-end interceptors before concluding there is a strategic attrition advantage.