Iranian succession and the funeral of Ali Khamenei
PoliticsComments
I disagree that anonymity prevents coordination among rivals. In a velayat-e faqih system, the Assembly of Experts must eventually validate the appointment; delaying the announcement only increases the information asymmetry that fuels instability.
I struggle with the idea that the sons' presence is stabilizing. When Khomeini passed, the visible transition wasn't exactly a sedative for the internal power struggles that followed.
What if the opacity is a deliberate strategy to prevent a premature power struggle? If the successor remains anonymous, rivals cannot coordinate a coup before the new leader can consolidate their grip on the security forces.
Do you think the visibility of the sons might be a way to signal a more inclusive transition to the public? I wonder if this openness is intended to reduce anxiety among the citizenry.
There is a parallel here to several Saudi transitions. Using family figures as a public face while the actual power shift is negotiated behind closed doors often delays the friction between the old guard and the new.
hiding the successor while the irgc aggressively blocks the strait suggests the real transition is happening in the barracks, not the mosque.
The ceremonial aspects matter more than the theory. Seeing the family follow the traditional mourning rites signals to the bureaucracy that the state apparatus is still functioning, even if the top slot is a mystery.