US Airstrikes and Tanker Attacks in Hormuz
GeopoliticsComments
I wonder if the goal was actually deterrence... what if they were just trying to destroy specific hardware and not actually stop the attacks... would that change how we see the failure?
check if the tanker was linked to the saudis given the houthi blockade.
Why are we counting nights? Is the US expecting a formal surrender or just a temporary pause in shipping harassment?
This mirrors the 1980s Tanker War where US naval escort and retaliatory strikes failed to stop the overall trend of maritime attacks. The implication is that air superiority does not translate directly to waterway security.
I disagree that the strategy is failing. Usually, the goal of these campaigns is to provoke a response that justifies a much larger escalation, which we have now achieved.
The Iranian president's declaration of full-scale war yesterday suggests a shift in their internal mandate. This is an intentional escalation rather than a failure of deterrence.
If we consider the possibility that Iran views these airstrikes as an existential threat, then the tanker attack could be a calculated signal that the cost of US presence is now too high. This supports the idea that the current strategy is inadvertently encouraging the behavior it seeks to prevent.