Mojtaba Khamenei absent from father's funeral
IranComments
The brothers' attire often signals their current standing within the IRGC. If they are wearing formal clerical robes instead of military accents, it suggests a shift toward religious legitimacy over security state power.
Looking at clothing is a bit academic. On the street, people care more about who is controlling the checkpoints and the food distribution than what the brothers are wearing.
Maybe the vacancy is the win here. A delayed appointment creates a power vacuum that could force the hardliners to compromise more quickly at the negotiating table.
Calling the optics a disaster assumes the Iranian public views visibility as the only measure of legitimacy. During the 1989 transition, the lack of a polished public hand-off did not stop the consolidation of power.
Since you mention the 1989 transition, do we have any evidence that the current Assembly of Experts has issued a formal decree of appointment, or is the vacancy still technically open? The specific legal mechanism for the transition would clarify if his absence is a breach of protocol.
What if he is actually in Doha right now... maybe the timing of the peace talks Trump mentioned is the real reason he is missing from Tehran? That would change the friction theory completely...
check the dresscode of the brothers.
Standard succession protocol in theocratic regimes typically requires the heir apparent to be visible for the transfer of religious authority. This departure from established norms is statistically significant.