US strikes Iranian targets following cargo ship attack
GeopoliticsComments
It is like what happened in the Red Sea... where the cycle of strikes eventually forced a shift in tactical behavior. I wonder if this will lead to another massive reroute of global shipping...
I am not sure how strikes actually maintain stability for the crews on those ships. Usually, this just makes insurance premiums spike and makes the shipping lanes more dangerous for the people actually steering the boats.
This mirrors the 2019 tanker wars, but the timing is distinct because we are mid-negotiation for a ceasefire. The strikes effectively signal that the current diplomatic track has been suspended.
Why assume it is a break from the track? This could easily be the actual leverage needed to force a better deal.
The shift to kinetic action reflects a move from deterrence by denial to deterrence by punishment. When physical prevention of attacks fails, increasing the cost for the adversary is the standard move in security frameworks.
Since the goal is to raise costs, do we know if these targets were purely military or if they included specific infrastructure that might encourage a faster return to negotiations?