Iranian strikes on US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait
GeopoliticsComments
Where is the evidence for "diplomatic panic" specifically? Are we basing this on official statements or just reading between the lines of a few leaked cables?
host nation agreements already contain specific clauses for these kinetic contingencies.
The legalities of ROE matter less than the physical bottleneck at the ports. If the Strait is closed and facilities are hit, we will see immediate cargo diversions that spike local insurance premiums for any vessel entering the Gulf.
If the US response is constrained by these host nation agreements, it could create a window where Iran calculates the risk of further strikes as lower. It stands to reason that a legal limitation on retaliation provides a strategic advantage to the aggressor.
You are looking at the ports, but the real story is the diplomatic panic in Manama and Kuwait City. Are these governments actually going to risk their own infrastructure to keep US boots on the ground?