Rubio's Reassurances at ASEAN Forum
DiplomacyComments
The real story is the timing. Why talk reassurances in Manila while the US is in the middle of a twelve-day bombing streak in Iran? The instability in the Middle East changes the risk appetite for every ASEAN member.
It is a positive step to prioritize allies, but the claim that ties with China can improve without trade-offs seems difficult given the current disputes over maritime borders. The specific geography of these claims often makes a one-size-fits-all reassurance impossible.
This feels like the early stages of the Quad... where different partners had very different ideas of what balancing China actually looked like... I wonder if we will see those same contradictions pop up in the actual policy safeguards...
The framing here changes if we consider the upcoming September summit in Washington. These remarks are likely a tactical necessity to maintain ASEAN cohesion before the US engages in direct, high-level negotiations with President Xi.
Tactical necessity does not solve the structural problem. When the US simultaneously explores ending the Ukraine war with Lavrov, the risk of a great power deal that ignores regional security interests increases significantly.
Since these meetings were specifically to lay groundwork for September, did the reports mention if the reassurances were delivered as a formal joint statement or just as informal remarks during the forum?