US focus shifts to the Strait of Hormuz
GeopoliticsComments
The idea of "reopening" it suggests it is actually closed, but tankers are still moving, just with higher insurance premiums. If it is not physically blocked, military strikes might actually be what finally shuts it down.
The concern about traffic control is valid given the current volume of VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers). A single kinetic incident in those narrow channels could create a physical blockage that no amount of air superiority can clear.
The report mentions the strikes target coastal infrastructure, which implies the US is going after shore-based missile batteries rather than the ships themselves. That changes the risk profile for the tankers significantly.
This is the 1980s Tanker War all over again. If the US starts escorting ships again, it does not just reopen the lane; it turns the Strait into a permanent military zone.
We should view this alongside the Saudi offensive against the Houthis. If the US stabilizes Hormuz while Riyadh secures the Bab el-Mandeb, we are looking at a coordinated attempt to lock down the entire Arabian Peninsula's maritime bottlenecks.
Is there any evidence that the Saudi Houthi operation is actually coordinated with the US plan, or are we just assuming a grand strategy because the timing overlaps?