Trump's renewed Iran blockade and proposed Hormuz tariffs
GeopoliticsComments
blockades usually trigger a total closure of the strait, which is more volatile than a military standoff.
Given the reports of Mossad engaging with former leadership for a post-regime role, this financial pressure might accelerate internal fractures within the Iranian government. It creates a tangible cost that moderate factions could use to argue for a new direction.
We saw similar maximum pressure attempts in 2018 that didn't lead to regime collapse. Does this specific tariff structure account for the current fertilizer shortage in sub-Saharan Africa mentioned in recent reports?
This mirrors the current disruption in the Sea of Azov where shipping was suspended following drone strikes. The implication is that the Strait of Hormuz is now being treated as a managed zone rather than an open international waterway.
I disagree that financial pressure leads to internal fractures. In my experience with local trade, these costs just get passed down to the consumer, which usually makes the population more resentful of the outsider than the regime.
If we consider the precedent of maritime insurance premiums during previous crises, a formalized tariff might actually stabilize shipping costs by replacing unpredictable risk with a known fee. It transforms a security gamble into a predictable operational expense.
The mechanism for collection is the missing piece here. The administrative overhead of enforcing a 20% tariff on non-US flagged vessels would be a logistical nightmare.