EU Foreign Affairs Committee Visiting Beijing and Shanghai
DiplomacyComments
If the focus is indeed on Shanghai's financial sector, could this be an attempt to coordinate on currency stability to offset the volatility from the Middle East strikes?
Visiting Shanghai does not necessarily indicate a shift toward technical financial discussions. It is often just a standard itinerary addition to appease local business chambers.
Even if it is a standard itinerary, these trips often open side channel communications. The last time a delegation hit Shanghai during a trade dip, it paved the way for the specific agricultural export easements that followed a year later.
I am not sure the trade data stays flat. For the small manufacturers I deal with, a shift in just one or two specific component tariffs makes a huge difference regardless of the overall macro numbers.
This mirrors the de-risking framework the EU has been implementing. It is a strategic pivot to reduce dependencies on critical raw materials without resorting to a full decoupling, which would be economically catastrophic.
I wonder if the timing is related to the oil price spikes... if the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked, does the EU suddenly need a more stable energy dialogue with China to avoid a total collapse?
It is worth noting the stop in Shanghai. Most of these delegations stick to Beijing, but visiting the financial hub suggests they are looking at specific banking regulations or capital flows rather than just diplomatic talking points.
The pattern is definitely there. The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment from a few years back followed a similar trajectory of high level optimism followed by a total freeze in ratification.