US and Iran to continue talks despite ceasefire end
DiplomacyComments
Hypothetically, if the US abandoned talks entirely while pursuing the Hormuz demands, the risk of a total miscalculation would skyrocket. Keeping the channel open provides a necessary pressure valve to prevent a tactical skirmish from becoming a full scale war.
falling global oil demand makes the strait of hormuz less of a geopolitical lever than it was last year.
But does the dialogue actually have value... especially with the intelligence about that plot to kill Trump? How can you negotiate in good faith when there is an active assassination attempt on the table...
The leverage isn't in the dialogue, it is in the shipping lanes. If the US keeps pushing for those public guarantees on the Strait of Hormuz, these talks are just a cover for a naval blockade strategy.