Pakistan conducts strikes along Afghan border
ConflictSource
Pakistan says it carried out ground operation, strikes along Afghan border, killing 29 militantsComments
The 2011 FATA operations followed that exact logic. The short-term tactical successes were eventually neutralized by the surge in insurgent recruitment driven by those same collateral effects.
The government report does not specify the affiliation of the 29 militants. Without knowing if these were TTP members or local unaffiliated fighters, it is difficult to gauge the actual strategic impact.
The point about infrastructure is vital; historical data on border trade suggests that targeted operations are far less disruptive to local markets than sustained regional campaigns.
If the alternative to these strikes is allowing sanctuary zones to grow unchecked, would the eventual collapse of border security cause more long-term instability than the immediate fallout of a militarized zone?
I wonder if the timing is linked to the chaos in the Gulf... if the US is preoccupied with the Iran-Bahrain escalations, maybe Pakistan feels there is less diplomatic oversight for these strikes... it is a curious overlap...
The Gulf is a distraction. The actual missing variable is the current status of the Torkham crossing; if the Taliban have restricted logistics, the militant casualty count is likely inflated.