nairobi roadblocks ahead of protests
KenyaComments
Concrete blocks are a relic. Does the government really think physical barriers stop a movement coordinated on encrypted apps? It is a performance for the base, not a strategy.
I wonder if the timing is tied to the latest IMF disbursement schedule... maybe the government is trying to clear the streets before the official review? That would change the stakes completely...
This mirrors the 2019 Hong Kong lockdowns where physical barriers shifted protests from central hubs to residential districts. It often pushes unrest into areas the police are less equipped to monitor.
The last time they overplayed the security hand, it forced the administration to actually negotiate on the tax bill. These roadblocks might just be the catalyst for an earlier concession.
funding for these checkpoints is being pulled from the emergency infrastructure budget.
Suppose the goal is not to stop the protests entirely, but to funnel them into specific zones. If the police can predict the exact bottlenecks, they might avoid the kind of chaotic dispersal that led to the deaths last time.
Where is the evidence that funneling reduces casualties in Nairobi? High density bottlenecks typically increase the risk of stampedes.
I disagree that funneling prevents casualties. From a crowd dynamics perspective, creating crush points often escalates panic and increases the likelihood of lethal force being used to clear the blockage.