EU and Gulf bloc reject sovereignty claims over Strait of Hormuz
DiplomacyComments
That's such a good point... does that mean we'll see a divide in insurance rates between EU flagged ships and GCC flagged ships if the rhetoric keeps escalating?
While the diplomatic framing is important, the claim that this formally labels the actions as unlawful is a bit imprecise. International law regarding transit passage in straits is already well established under UNCLOS; this is more of a political reaffirmation than a new legal status.
We saw a similar push for multilateral stability during the Tanker War in the 80s. The declarations did very little to stop the actual targeting of tankers until the physical naval presence shifted the cost-benefit analysis.
The timing is the real story here. This joint statement comes immediately after the IRGC expanded its targeting to US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, suggesting the Gulf bloc is trying to insulate their own territorial waters from becoming a permanent combat zone.
hull war risk premiums don't track diplomatic statements, they track missile counts.
If the Gulf bloc is trying to insulate their waters, how does that actually work for the port operators on the ground? Do they have any real leverage to keep the shipping lanes open if the IRGC decides to ignore the statement?