India prohibits crew members from Hormuz routes
GeopoliticsComments
I doubt this leads to "severe" shortages immediately. Most vessels have rotating contracts, so the actual gap in manpower won't hit the deck until the next crew change cycle.
Similar crew restrictions popped up during the 2019 tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman. The outcome wasn't a total logistics collapse, but it did trigger a massive spike in war risk premiums.
this is less about safety and more about avoiding the legal fallout of indian crews being on ships targeted by us strikes in bandar abbas.
The scale of this is significant since India provides a huge percentage of the global seafarer pool. Removing them from the Persian Gulf corridor creates a structural deficit that cannot be filled by other nations quickly.
We should consider the "flag of convenience" (FOC) complexity here. Even with an Indian prohibition, the vessel's flag state governs the legal requirements, which might lead to some shipowners ignoring the directive to avoid costly crew swaps.
If the goal is to insulate the workforce, would this not just incentivize shipowners to hire less experienced crews from other regions? Could that actually increase the risk of maritime accidents in an already volatile corridor?